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Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD for April 21. COT report. Detailed analysis of the pair’s movement and trade deals.

Relevance up to 20:00 2022-04-21 UTC–4

GBP/USD 5M

The GBP/USD currency pair, after another unsuccessful attempt to overcome the level of 1.2981 on Tuesday, tried to start an upward correction on Wednesday. It cannot be said that it did it by 5+, but still managed to grow to the Senkou Span B line. Thus, at the moment, both major pairs have bounced from a strong extreme level for the nth time, after which they have grown to the Senkou Span B lines. Almost perfectly accurate and identical movements. Today’s fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds for the pair were the same as for the euro/dollar. That is, they were absent. Perhaps the pound also reacted to the news of a new attempt by the Kremlin to conclude a settlement agreement with Kiev. However, to be honest, the chances of peace in the next few months do not exceed 5%. Moscow cannot take a step back in this conflict without at least winning a local victory. Kiev, on the other hand, feels the support of Western countries more and more every day, which continue to send weapons to Ukraine every day. By the way, yesterday there was a message that Germany is ready to abandon Russian oil by the end of this year… In general, time is already working for Ukraine, so it is not in too much of a hurry to make concessions.

As for trading signals, only one was generated on Wednesday. More precisely, at some point in time, the pair grew to the area of 1.3050 – the Kijun-sen line – the Senkou Span B line and traded in it for about 6-7 hours. I tried to bounce off it twice and form a sell signal, but each time I returned to the critical line. It could not settle above the Senkou Span B line. Therefore, if traders opened a short position, it could be closed several times in zero profit.

COT report:

The GBP/USD currency pair, after another unsuccessful attempt to overcome the level of 1.2981 on Tuesday, tried to start an upward correction on Wednesday. It cannot be said that it did it by 5+, but still managed to grow to the Senkou Span B line. Thus, at the moment, both major pairs have bounced from a strong extreme level for the nth time, after which they have grown to the Senkou Span B lines. Almost perfectly accurate and identical movements. Today’s fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds for the pair were the same as for the euro/dollar. That is, they were absent. Perhaps the pound also reacted to the news of a new attempt by the Kremlin to conclude a settlement agreement with Kiev. However, to be honest, the chances of peace in the next few months do not exceed 5%. Moscow cannot take a step back in this conflict without at least winning a local victory. Kiev, on the other hand, feels the support of Western countries more and more every day, which continue to send weapons to Ukraine every day. By the way, yesterday there was a message that Germany is ready to abandon Russian oil by the end of this year… In general, time is already working for Ukraine, so it is not in too much of a hurry to make concessions.

As for trading signals, only one was generated on Wednesday. More precisely, at some point in time, the pair grew to the area of 1.3050 – the Kijun-sen line – the Senkou Span B line and traded in it for about 6-7 hours. I tried to bounce off it twice and form a sell signal, but each time I returned to the critical line. It could not settle above the Senkou Span B line. Therefore, if traders opened a short position, it could be closed several times in zero profit.

We recommend to familiarize yourself with:

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 21. Russia-NATO relations are heating up, the Ukraine-Russia conflict is approaching a turning point.

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 21. French presidential election: artificial tension and ostentatious intrigue formed.

Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on April 21. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.

GBP/USD 1H

The pound continues to remain in a downward trend on the hourly timeframe and not far from its 15-month lows. Thus, the overall technical picture does not change in any way, even taking into account yesterday’s correction. There is still no trend line or channel, and the pair’s movements are very chaotic. If the bulls manage to overcome the Senkou Span B line, then the pound may continue to grow to its local high from April 14. We highlight the following important levels on April 20: 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3050, 1.3119, 1.3175. The Senkou Span B (1.3069) and Kijun-sen (1.3062) lines can also be signal sources. Signals can be “bounces” and “breakthroughs” of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on transactions. The chairmen of the central banks of these countries, Andrew Bailey and Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak in the UK and the United States on Thursday. Potentially, these are very important and interesting events that can provoke a reaction in the market. But it may happen that both heads will not make a single important statement.

Explanations for the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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