Relevance up to 11:00 2022-03-28 UTC–4
Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair also traded in a format very close to the flat on Friday. It was in approximately the same price range on Thursday. There were only strong movements on Tuesday and Wednesday, as the markets were impressed for two days by the British inflation that increased above forecasts. But when the macroeconomic statistics ended, it immediately became clear that not only the euro/dollar pair was ready to “take a break”. The volatility of the British pound was slightly less than 70 points on Friday, which is quite small, and the price jumped up and down during the day. The only more or less significant report on this day was the report on retail sales in the UK, which turned out to be significantly worse than forecasts. The British pound actually fell by 50 points after this report was published, but it rose by the same 50 points in the afternoon. Thus, the market unexpectedly worked out such data, but this did not affect the overall technical picture in any way. If the horizontal channel has already been practically formed for the euro, then it is only brewing for the pound. We believe that the probability of a flat is really high now, since all the most important, unexpected and high-profile events have been left behind.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The technical picture looks very good on the 5-minute timeframe. Especially for a flat day. Only three trading signals were generated on Friday, but almost all of them were close to ideal. The first sell signal was formed when the price overcame the 1.3210 level at the very beginning of the European trading session. Subsequently, the quotes fell by another 40 points and did not reach the target level of only 2 points. However, this “shortfall” can be considered an acceptable error, therefore, it was necessary to close short positions around the level of 1.3156 and open long positions. After that, the British currency showed growth and returned back to the level of 1.3210, from which it also bounced quite accurately. Therefore, at this moment it was necessary to close long positions and open new short positions. The last trade should have been closed manually, since the pair could not once again fall to the level of 1.3156. As a result, it turns out that novice traders opened three deals on Friday and all three turned out to be profitable. It was possible to earn at least 70 points. That’s how, despite the flat, one could make good money thanks to good levels and accurate bounces.
How to trade on Monday:
The pair settled below the ascending trend line on the 30-minute TF. Formally, a downward trend should form now, but we are more inclined to the option with the horizontal channel. Therefore, next week we advise you to be careful with any transactions, as after a month of fairly strong movements, the time may come for a flat and low volatility. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow, it is recommended to trade by levels 1.3082, 1.3110-1.3126, 1.3156, 1.3210, 1.3241, 1.3272. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction, 20 points should be set to Stop Loss at breakeven. There are no important events or reports scheduled for tomorrow in the US and the UK. Most likely, there will be no important news of a geopolitical nature. Therefore, we believe that there is a high probability of a “dull Monday” with low volatility.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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