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Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on October 6, 2022

Relevance up to 14:00 UTC–4

The euro and the pound were declining throughout yesterday’s trading day. At first, this was a banal rebound after the previous rapid growth. But then this trend was reinforced and strengthened by unexpectedly good employment data in the United States. Firstly, the previous data was revised upwards from 132,000 to 185,000. Secondly, employment increased by 208,000 against the forecast of 135,000. It seems that the American labor market does not intend to lose momentum and continues to grow. Which, of course, is an extremely positive factor contributing to the further strengthening of the dollar.

Employment change (United States):

Today, the dollar can continue to strengthen its positions–this time at the expense of European statistics. The rate of decline in retail sales in the euro area should accelerate from -0.9% to -2.2%. And this is a drop in consumer activity, which is the locomotive of the economy. Consequently, the European economy is steadily slipping into a recession, which may well turn out to be quite deep, and most importantly, prolonged. Naturally, against this background, the dollar looks much more attractive than the euro. Well, the pound will simply follow the euro.

Retail sales (Europe):

The EUR/USD currency pair was actively losing its positions during the past day. As a result, the price rebounded from the parity level, where the quote had recently approached. The pullback lasted until the previously passed level 0.9850, where a stop occurred. For the subsequent decline, the quote needs to stay below 0.9850 for at least a four-hour period. Otherwise, we will continue to move at the peak of the current corrective move.

The GBPUSD currency pair, following the euro, entered the pullback stage, returning the quote below the level of 1.1410. At the moment, the pullback has slowed down the formation, but in order for sellers to get further incentive to decline, it is enough to stay below 1.1200. Until then, fluctuation along the level of 1.1410 is possible.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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