Relevance up to 01:00 2022-03-12 UTC–5
The US market rose on anticipation of an end to the crisis in Ukraine.
The Dow added 2%, the NASDAQ rose by 3.6%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.7% on Wednesday.
It was the first day of growth for the US market after four days of decline.
Developments in Ukraine remain a major topic for politicians and investors. Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers Lavrov and Kuleba are scheduled to negotiate in Turkey today. The main topics are ceasefire, neutral status of Ukraine, security guarantees for Ukraine, status of DNR/LNR and residents of these regions. According to our source, the issue of Crimea will not be discussed. This increases the chances of progress in the negotiations.
Ukraine already has a huge humanitarian crisis after 2 weeks of “special operations”. According to the UN, the number of refugees is over 2 million. More than 2,000 civilians have been killed. There is a huge humanitarian disaster in Mariupol. Video and photos of a children’s hospital and a maternity hospital destroyed by an aerial bomb are all over the Western media.
The situation on the special operations map remains unchanged for almost a week.
Oil was down $20, or 15%, yesterday. As of Thursday, Brent is trading at $114. The IEA countries have probably started selling oil from reserves, as promised for a week now.
The S&P 500 trades at 4,278 and is expected to be in the range between 4,240 and 4,320.
Investors in the US have started to boost the market. Low prices and the good state of the economy are supporting growth. The market hopes that Western efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine will bear fruit after all.
A new inflation report for February will be released in the US today. Inflation is expected to be 0.6 to 0.8%. The market is preparing for a Fed rate hike as early as March 16.
Gas on the ICE exchange was also down sharply yesterday, to $1,700. However, this is still a critically high price for consumers. The G7 countries are expected to hold an emergency meeting today on energy, oil and gas supply and price.
The US remains extremely cautious about removing it from direct involvement in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. The Pentagon has officially denied Poland’s plan to hand over obsolete Soviet-era MIG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, despite repeated requests from Ukraine.
USDX is at 98.10 and is likely to trade in the range between 97.80 and 98.30.
Yesterday there was a strong pullback not only in oil, but also in the dollar and the euro to the dollar (up). All this gives the impression that secret agreements on Ukraine have been reached and this has leaked into the markets.
USD/CAD trades at 1.2815 and is seen moving in the range of 1.2700-1.2900. The pair moved back into range on the dollar and oil retracement.
Traders expect the US market to rise again, especially if there is progress in ending the crisis in Ukraine.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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